Having just wandered home from Soho I can report that it’s freezing this evening; not just a little chilly, but properly cold – even in the centre of London, this on the weekend when central Germany has early snowfall over the Harz Mountains too, it is looking as if the long term forecast that Winter 2010 would be a bitter one might be true.
The trend of recent European Winters being distinctly colder runs in the face of all the warnings that we’d be getting warmer and wetter winters; we’re instead getting warm wet summers and cold snowy winters. Hopefully people will be a little more prepared this winter – I say hope – as I doubt they will, and once again come the first major snow fall we’ll have wall-to-wall news coverage of cars skidding around in circles and all public transport at a standstill as our cousins from across the channel mock most britons utter ineptitude at even the lightest winter weather.
This time last year I was up in the Alps, where they’d already had an unexpected early snow-fall; which ‘caught them out’ – I say that in bunny rabbit ears as that’s what they said when you asked about the snow; you couldn’t tell exactly where they’d been caught out, as even the highest roads were swept absolutely clear of snow, not a sight of slush anywhere, and certainly no ludicrous patches of black ice that bedevil the UK’s roads.
One: The recession will be worse than most people have so far admitted, companies both small and large will struggle – those reliant on borrowing for cashflow are doomed.
Two: ITN won’t bring back the jobless count, much to the general annoyance of every person wanting to pin the destruction of the economy on the muppets in government.
Three: Mandelson will resign or be fired, again, for some reason – I’d start a sweepy, but i think it might end in a writ.
Four: Brown won’t call an election, probably the safest prediction, I’m afraid we’re stuck with him for another year.
Five: They will find someone else to blame the economy on, if not the American’s it’ll be some other poor sod.
Six: There’ll be a shadow cabinet reshuffle, seats for Davis and Clarke possibly?
Seven: House prices will continue to fall, probably knocking off a good 15% off today’s values, this won’t help the market recover just yet though, as the banks still won’t lend to first time buyers.
Eight: The nationalised and part nationalised banks will continue to embarrass the government in ways they haven’t yet imagined.
Nine: Tight Labour party finances will see a resurgence of Unions setting the political agenda, expect to see the minimum wage go up crucifying businesses.
Ten: To add to the woes of major retailers going bust I’m expecting Ad revenues to kill off at least one newspaper.